Tuesday, 4 March 2014

bouncing on a poll

It is the perception of several of the papers, that that after the British parties vetoed a currency union the polls showed an initial bounce towards Yes, out of anger against having a British decision impose a situation on us, but that this has now converted into an eventual clearer swing to No as the outcome. Probably so, but why?

It is the perception of seemingly all the papers, that it is because the merits of what Osborne says has got through to us, or that we are accepting there won't be a currency union and being daft enough to think it matters. That does not sound right: all indications until now have been that nobody much among voters, only Salmond himself, ever cared about the currency union issue or was ever keen on the idea. so it can't be that, can it?

So here is a different idea. Isn't it more likely that folks' initial reaction to the currency union announcement, the Yes bounce, reflected and still reflects what we think of it. We did not all change our minds about it after a bit of thought, how likely is that? So something else, not the original announcement, has caused the swing to no that has followed. So what else has happened affecting perception of the issue? -Salmond's absurd response to it. Treating us as stupid, saying don't believe what they say, believe what I want to believe. Showing in the Yes campaign a character of unconvincingness and no regard for factual verification. not being offered any factual answer on the issue, any dealing with the position as it is. That's what is widely recgonised as the nonsense in the line the SNP has taken on this. So that's what has turned the polls back to No. Not the demerits of currency union itself or of the British announcement - but the demerits of responding to any issue with gameplaying frivolity and selective blotting out of facts. Some place to have in history.

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